Maxine Waters has been representing the South Central District of Los Angeles for a long time. Her district (CA-43) has changed a little over her time in office, but it it still basically the same. It contains large portions of the South Bay, Torrance, Inglewood, Hawthorne, Lomita and Carson. And, its demographics are poor. In fact, a big chunk are below the poverty level. However, there has been one big change, the majority is no longer black.
In fact, the majority is now Hispanic. Blacks only represent a little less than 24%. As a result, in my opinion, the district is ripe to become Republican. I don’t know whether the GOP can definitely win it. But, it is possible. Famed Black Conservative Larry Elder agrees. Please see his most recent article at: https://townhall.com/columnists/larryelder/2017/07/13/kerosene-maxine-waters-how-much-longer-will-her-district-tolerate-her-n2354049
Is Maxine Waters Really Vulnerable?
Not only has Maxine Waters’ positions been almost toxic to black Americans, they are toxic to Evangelical Christians too. She stands for abortion on demand. She stands for gay marriage. And, she stands for transgender bathrooms. In fact, socially, she has absorbed every one of the Obama Administration’s most liberal positions. Every one of which is anathema to evangelicals. And, from the demographics in CA-43, it appears that evangelicals may be able to swing the election in 2018. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if a small portion of the black vote can be swung by attacking her on these social positions.
But, that’s not going to be enough to win. In order to beat her, you will have to appeal to the Hispanic Community. And, specifically, Hispanic business owners as these are the guys/gals who tend to vote in larger numbers, than the non-working poor. Again, she is anathema to this voting block. I don’t see one vote of hers in the past 20 years that has been pro-business. In fact, almost everything she stands for is pro-government and the strangling regulations that come with such a pro-government stance.
Additionally, she has become what appears to be borderline senile. Ms. Waters is currently 78 years old. At the time of the next election, she will be over 80. Now, don’t say, I’m spouting age discrimination. Age, is not the issue. Cognitive ability is. And, there are a number of articles all over the web which indicate her cognitive ability may be lessening. See e.g. http://constitution.com/maxine-waters-going-senile-says-never-called-trump-impeachment/; https://twitter.com/kwilli1046/status/880730702236483587; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-ktfhLG968
Lastly, and most importantly, she has gone completely off the rail on President Trump. Since his election and inauguration, she has continually been a leader in the resistance movement. Now, she is a leader in the impeachment movement. In fact, she’s been screaming impeachment every time someone will listen. Mind you, in my opinion, there is nothing whatsoever is an impeachable offense. So, accordingly, she is trying to thwart the authority and legitimacy of a constitutionally elected Commander-In-Chief.
Therefore, she is definitely vulnerable.
Who Can Beat Maxine Waters?
The only question is who can beat her. Thus far, the only person declared is a young Republican named Omar Navarro. I say young, because he is very young. He is currently 28. He ran against her in 2016 and got more than 50,000 votes with almost no campaign and no money.
And, this is the real problem with Navarro: He will not be able to raise hardly any money, let alone enough to win. And my dear readers, that is what it is going to take to beat her. It’s going to take money and lots of it because the Democratic Party will not allow this seat to go away easily. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if it the DNC outspends the Republican 3/1 or more. Especially, if they believe she is vulnerable.
For one, she is a Congressional Leader. In fact, you can argue she is a leader of the Congressional Black Caucus. She is vocal and in the news constantly. Keeping this seat is very important to both her and the DNC because of this and many other reasons. Any candidate with any credible opportunity and cash will be attacked with a lot of cash.
Navarro, simply, cannot to raise this level of cash. In fact, from what I’m hearing, he may not even raise 100,000 dollars. And, it’s going to take way more than that to beat her. In fact, it is going to take in the millions. My guesstimate is that you will need 2-3 million dollars to run a viable campaign against Ms. Maxine Waters.
In conclusion, she definitely is vulnerable. But, where is the person with the cash and the ability to flip this seat? More coming in the next few weeks.