I received an e-mail this morning from a good friend who was kind enough to share a link to the website published by of the University of Colorado at Boulder. It appears that they have been conducting predictive modeling studies of every US presidential race since 1980. Rather than stealing their academic thunder, allow me to present just a few excerpts followed by a link to the entire article.
“According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.”
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,”
“Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.”
“In 2012, What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…