Current State of the Race IV

Tim Ross
March 19, 2012 Posted by Tim Ross MrTim29@ymail.com

We’re almost to the halfway point… here is the current state of the race.


Governor Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney had a great week…. again.  This is beginning to sound redundant, but it is true.  Mitt has swept the last three primaries and won double-digit portions in Mississippi and Alabama.  In fact, of the 32 states and territories that have held primaries, Romney has won 25.  That is a 78% advantage.  And it goes further too, when discussing delegates.  According to Real Clear Politics, Romney now stands with 516 delegates to the effort of the other three candidates that have a combined total of only 443.  In other words, Romney has won 53.8% of the total delegates.  He needs only 628 delegates more to win the nomination and with his winning percentage figured into the next 25 states and territories holding primaries for a total of 1,339 delegates remaining, he shouldn’t have a problem.  If the trend continues, Romney will end up 720 more delegates, for a total of 1,236.  That gives him a buffer of 92 delegates… which is an average of about 3 states or territories.  But here’s the kicker… the final stretch of the primaries is where Romney will do best.  There are several winner-take-all states like Utah (40), New Jersey (50), California (172), Delaware (17), District of Columbia (19), Maryland (37) and Wisconsin (42) where Romney does very well.  And he is poised to win in other large delegates states like Illinois (69), New York (95), Kentucky (45), and North Carolina (55).  And, believe it or not, Romney is competitive in Texas (155), topping Santorum by 2 points in a recent Rasmussen poll last week.  And another advantage of Romney is that his two main opponents have a COMBINED total of $607k in campaign cash on hand… compared to Romney’s $7.3 million.  They just don’t have the resources to go the distances.  And it will be their own lack of support that causes them to end their campaigns sooner rather than later.  At this point, everyone knows Romney has this in the bag.  It would be the good and decent thing for the others to let him get on with the business of defeating Obama this November.

  • Romney versus Obama: Romney ties (Rasmussen 3/18)
  • Romney Campaign Finance: $74.9 million
  • Romney Cash on Hand: $7.3 million
  • Romney States/Territories won: 21 (1 tie)
  • Romney Delegates: 516
  • Romney Facebook: 1,538,419 Likes


Senator Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum won Alabama and Mississippi last week… barely.  These were states that Gingrich was supposed to win, so it was a good night for Santorum in that respect.  The problem is that the total delegates he took away from these proportional states was only 32.  Right behind him, Romney took 23 delegates.  Then Romney went on to win Hawaii, America Somoa and Puerto Rico.  These Santorum losses erased his 9 point delegate lead for the week and put Santorum further behind Romney by another 29 delegates.  Santorum, quickly turning into a Biden-like candidate known for putting his foot in his mouth, has gotten off topic and talked about contraception, pornography, not to mention going to Puerto Rico where he told the citizens that they should all learn to speak English.  Rick… that comment couldn’t wait until after the primary?!  Then, he was photographed sun tanning by the pool.  I don’t know what was worse… the fact that he was perceived as not vigorously campaigning, or that he looked like a beached whale.  Santorum, like Obama, is never at fault for his own shortfalls.  Nope, rather it is some nemesis.  The former Senator has blamed Newt Gingrich for not dropping out as well as Fox News and the Drudge Report for his poor performance accusing the outlets of “shilling” and “cheerleading” for Romney.  Then, if everything else working against him isn’t enough, the Romney campaign released this video:

There are bigger problems afoot for Santorum.  He’s down to $229,000 in campaign cash and there are 25 states – including expensive Illinois, Texas and California – and he’s not raising much more to go further.  And the more it looks like Romney will be the nominee, the less money that will flow to Santorum.  Sure, he’ll win a couple more states… Pennsylvania, he get the majority of delegates out of Missouri, maybe he wins Louisiana and possible a couple other states, but these are all proportional primaries.  If Santorum is lucky, he will end up with just over 500 delegates by the time Romney wins the nomination with 1,144.  It might be a good time to save face and do the dignified thing by stepping aside, but he isn’t.

  • Santorum versus Obama Obama wins by 6 (Rasmussen 3/18)
  • Santorum Campaign Finance: $16.2 million
  • Santorum Cash on Hand: $229k
  • Santorum States/Territories won: 7 (1 tie)
  • Santorum Delegates: 236
  • Santorum Facebook: 182,625 Likes


Speaker Newt Gingrich

Newt is done.  Game. Set. Match.  It’s over.  He currently has won a paltry 2 states/territories out of the 32 available.  That is less than 6%.  The former Speaker must win 73% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. That requires a major turnaround since he’s only winning about 16.7% of the delegates to date… and he leads in just a couple polls (Nebraska and West Virginia) out of all that is available.  His only reason for staying in the race now is to try to spoil the nomination for Romney.  Even if it is not, it clearly looks personal.  And his personal vendetta would only occur to the detriment to the Republican Party and the nation as a whole.  If a contested or brokered convention would occur, it would give Republicans less than two months to raise money and campaign against Obama.  It would be a disaster.  Perhaps the reason he refuses to drop out is that he knows his supporters would split between Santorum and Romney… practically insuring victory for Romney.  According to Gallup, if Newt dropped Romney would receive 40% of the vote and Santorum getting 33%.  So, a broke Newt selfishly stays in the race.

  • Gingrich versus Obama: Obama wins by 18 (Fox News 3/12)
  • Gingrich Campaign Finance: $21.2 million
  • Gingrich Cash on Hand: $378k
  • Gingrich States/Territories won: 2
  • Gingrich Delegates: 141
  • Gingrich Facebook: 296,249 Likes


Congressman Ron Paul

As predicted, Ron Paul won no primaries last week.  In fact, he won’t win any primaries from this point forward… barring a three way midair jet airplane collision between Romney, Gingrich and Santorum.  The beauty of Paul though, is that he provides Romney with the perfect retort to the Santorum-Gingrich complaints about being outspent in major states like Florida and Michigan.  The Congressman has amassed approximately the same amount of money as Santorum and Gingrich combined, has triple the campaign money they do on hand, and has outspent them Santorum 3 to 2 and Gingrich 2 to 1… yet, the outspending has not led to more delegates for Ron Paul.  There has to be something more to win the delegates.  In fact, there has to be more to be able to get the money.  When you are able to out-raise your political opponents, it’s because you’ve energized your base and provided them with some level of “hope and change” worth donating to the cause.  That’s why Obama raised the money he did in 2008.  Ron Paul does that to a certain extent as well, but he cannot bring himself to adjust his foreign policy to a palatable place, so he can finally start winning a couple states/territories and more delegates.  He prides himself on his consistency, so he won’t adjust his policies… and because of that, Ron Paul has lost even before he started.  But the Romney people appreciate him in the meantime.

  • Paul versus Obama: Paul wins by 12 (Rasmussen 3/12)
  • Paul Campaign Finance: $35.6 million
  • Paul Cash on Hand: $1.4 million
  • Paul States/Territories won: 0
  • Paul Delegates: 66
  • Paul Facebook: 914,080 Likes

Analysis
For the last couple weeks, my predictions have been extremely accurate with the exception of a single state one week and a single state the following week.  All within the margin of error.  Going forward, I see Romney wins Illinois, Maryland and District of Columbia.  And I see Santorum winning Louisiana and Wisconsin.  And, again, I see Romney putting himself further ahead of the pack and breaking 600 points by April 3, 2012.

The bottom line is that Romney has nearly twice the money than everyone combined.  And he continues to be the very best candidate to take on Obama in November.  Furthermore, Romney has the best record to go toe to toe with Obama and the least amount of baggage for $1 billion to attack.  And if Paul, Gingrich or Santorum were able to somehow squeak out a win, it would answer the Obama campaign’s greatest wish… anyone but Romney.

Next Up
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Illinois 69

Saturday, March 24, 2012
Louisiana 46

Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Wisconsin 42
Maryland 37
District of Columbia 19

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