Last year I wrote an article titled, âWhy Walker Will Win in Wisconsin.âÂ It was about Wisconsin Governor Scott Walkerâs battle to get his budget repair bill passed.Â At the time the article was published, the Democrat legislators in Wisconsin had left the state keeping Republicans in the legislature from having a quorum and passing the bill.Â Democrats, union thugs and âAstroturfâ protestors were bused into the State Capitol to protest.Â It received a ton of media attention and the well organized Left was poised to defeat or, at minimum, amend the bill more to their liking.Â In spite of the negative publicity and pressure, I knew at that time that Governor Walker would win the battle and get the bill passed simply based on his track record.
The final result?Â Governor Walker did get the bill passed and, as a result, Wisconsinâs budget was balanced, taxes lowered, and school districts & local governments saved hundreds of millions of dollars without the massive layoffs.
Hereâs the next prediction: Governor Mitt Romney wins the GOP nomination.Â Why?Â Again, simply because of his track record.
Okay, itâs not a stretch, but nothing is guaranteed.Â As it stands right now, Senator Santorum, Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich have each won a state.Â Gingrich currently leads in the delegate count as provided by the states; however, Romney leads in the overall delegate count which includes pledged and unpledged RNC delegates.Â The lead in the delegate count plus the enormous amount of momentum coming into Florida, Gingrich was in the driverâs seat for the nomination.Â Unfortunately for the Debate Master, Newt scored back-to-back goose eggs in the two Florida debates and his excellent poll numbers plummeted.Â This caused Romneyâs numbers to return to where they were prior to South Carolina primaryâŚ back into a double-digit lead.
In order for Romney to win Florida, a state he lost to John McCain in 2008, he has to have the votes. Fortunately for Romney, Florida does absentee ballots and early voting.Â By the time the South Carolina primary was wrapping up, approximately 33% of Florida voters had already cast their ballots and it was estimated that Romney had an 11 point lead in the election.Â After a short Gingrich bounce, Romney has found himself back on top with a 16 point lead according to Rasmussen.Â Itâs inevitable and no matter how much Newt complains and whines, Romney is too far ahead in Florida to beat.
Romneyâs Florida win is imminent and he will add a whopping 50 delegates to his total.
Now the reason that Romney wins the nominationâŚ his track record.
For February, there are six primaries that count:Â Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado, Michigan and Arizona.Â In 2008, Romney won all but Arizona, McCainâs home state. Â Provided Romney can repeat his track record and win the same states that McCain won (heâs 50-50 on that prospect now between South Carolina and Florida), it will be a clean sweep in February.
So whatâs in store for the nominees in February?
- Nevada and its 28 delegates, where Romney won in 2008 by 37.4 points.
- Maine at its 24 delegates, where Romney won in 2008 by 30.8 points.
- Minnesota and its 40 delegates where Romney won in 2008 by 19.4 points.
- Colorado and its 36 delegates where Romney won in 2008 by 41.7 points.
- Missouri (Missouri will hold a primary on February 7th, 2012, which will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th, 2012, which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention) â So Missouri is typically counted for March.
- Michigan and its 30 delegates where Romney won in 2008 by 9.2 points.
- Arizona and its 29 delegates where Romney took second place to McCain in 2008.
Arizona was McCainâs home state and McCain has since lent his support to Romney. In spite of a collective disappointment of McCain among Republicans since 2008, McCain was able to win a 2010 re-election in Arizona by a 56 to 32Â percent margin.Â So, McCainâs support of Romney in Arizona will go a long way.
Gingrich and Congressman Ron Paul have signaled that they are in this nomination battle for the long haul, if not taking it all the way to the convention.Â But should Romney have wins in 78% of the states going into Arizona, then Arizona might just be his opponentâs last stand.
Newt thinks he has a chance in Arizona because he believes that he is the “true conservative” (in spite of his many left wing stances I noted in my âAnyone But Newtâ article last week) and that Tea Partiers will coalesce around him.Â Thatâs exactly what J.D. Hayworth thought when he took on McCain in 2010.
But the truth about Tea Partiers, and I consider myself one, is that the overwhelming issues that concern us are economic issues.Â Is our country in debt?Â Are my taxes getting higher?Â Is the government being efficient?Â Is the government squandering tax dollars?Â And so on.Â Tea Partiers are less concerned with social issues and that is why they have a wide range of supporters from âConservativesâ to Constitutionalists to Libertarians to Republicans to Independents to even a few Blue Dog Democrats.
So Newtâs last stand is that he is going to waltz into Arizona looking for a showdown and hoping that by labeling himself the âmost conservativeâ candidate, that he will be able to form a posse of Tea Party supporters, and will be able to win a shootout against Romney at the OK Corral.Â The fact is that many Tea Party supporters like Romney because of his experience in free-enterprise.Â That is why he has the support of many in the Tea Part movement such as Governor Nikki Haley, Senate candidate Christine OâDonnell, Tea Party Caucus members Rep. Howard Coble, Rep. Ander Crenshaw, Rep. Lamar Smith, Rep. Rob Bishop, Rep. Michael Grimm, Rep. Wally Herger, Rep. Cynthia Lummis, Rep. Rodney Alexander and even the endorsement of the Independence Hall Tea Party.
The fact that, as Governor, Romney balanced Massachusettsâ state budget every year, turning a $3 billion deficit to a $2 billion rainy day fund, without raising taxes is music to a Tea Partierâs ears.Â When the showdown in Arizona happens, the Tea Party posse will be standing behind Romney.
Presuming Romney wins Arizona, he will have won 8 of 10 statesâŚ 7 in a row.Â The momentum will be too strong, the number of delegates to overcome will be too high, and Newt wonât have a chance going into March starts off with the state of Washington, where Romney has out-polled Gingrich in the past.Â As it begins to pile up against Newt, heâs going to get, as George Will put it, more âhorridâ over time.Â And thatâs just not going to help Republicans beat Obama in 2012.
Provided Romney wins the delegates from Florida and all the states in February, in addition to all pledged and unpledged RNC delegates, the lead and momentum will be with Romney.Â If Newt is a class act and doesnât want to see another four years of Barack Obama, he wonât take it all the way to the convention.Â Hopefully, the primaries will be wrapped up by March.Â It is important, because we need to start focusing on the one issue that will reunite all Tea Partiers, âConservatives,â Constitutionalists, Republicans, Libertarians, Independents and even some Blue Dog DemocratsâŚ beating Barack Obama in 2012.