Last year I wrote an article titled, “Why Walker Will Win in Wisconsin.” It was about Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s battle to get his budget repair bill passed. At the time the article was published, the Democrat legislators in Wisconsin had left the state keeping Republicans in the legislature from having a quorum and passing the bill. Democrats, union thugs and “Astroturf” protestors were bused into the State Capitol to protest. It received a ton of media attention and the well organized Left was poised to defeat or, at minimum, amend the bill more to their liking. In spite of the negative publicity and pressure, I knew at that time that Governor Walker would win the battle and get the bill passed simply based on his track record.
The final result? Governor Walker did get the bill passed and, as a result, Wisconsin’s budget was balanced, taxes lowered, and school districts & local governments saved hundreds of millions of dollars without the massive layoffs.
Here’s the next prediction: Governor Mitt Romney wins the GOP nomination. Why? Again, simply because of his track record.
Okay, it’s not a stretch, but nothing is guaranteed. As it stands right now, Senator Santorum, Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich have each won a state. Gingrich currently leads in the delegate count as provided by the states; however, Romney leads in the overall delegate count which includes pledged and unpledged RNC delegates. The lead in the delegate count plus the enormous amount of momentum coming into Florida, Gingrich was in the driver’s seat for the nomination. Unfortunately for the Debate Master, Newt scored back-to-back goose eggs in the two Florida debates and his excellent poll numbers plummeted. This caused Romney’s numbers to return to where they were prior to South Carolina primary… back into a double-digit lead.
In order for Romney to win Florida, a state he lost to John McCain in 2008, he has to have the votes. Fortunately for Romney, Florida does absentee ballots and early voting. By the time the South Carolina primary was wrapping up, approximately 33% of Florida voters had already cast their ballots and it was estimated that Romney had an 11 point lead in the election. After a short Gingrich bounce, Romney has found himself back on top with a 16 point lead according to Rasmussen. It’s inevitable and no matter how much Newt complains and whines, Romney is too far ahead in Florida to beat.
Romney’s Florida win is imminent and he will add a whopping 50 delegates to his total.
Now the reason that Romney wins the nomination… his track record.
For February, there are six primaries that count: Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado, Michigan and Arizona. In 2008, Romney won all but Arizona, McCain’s home state. Provided Romney can repeat his track record and win the same states that McCain won (he’s 50-50 on that prospect now between South Carolina and Florida), it will be a clean sweep in February.
So what’s in store for the nominees in February?
- Nevada and its 28 delegates, where Romney won in 2008 by 37.4 points.
- Maine at its 24 delegates, where Romney won in 2008 by 30.8 points.
- Minnesota and its 40 delegates where Romney won in 2008 by 19.4 points.
- Colorado and its 36 delegates where Romney won in 2008 by 41.7 points.
- Missouri (Missouri will hold a primary on February 7th, 2012, which will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th, 2012, which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention) – So Missouri is typically counted for March.
- Michigan and its 30 delegates where Romney won in 2008 by 9.2 points.
- Arizona and its 29 delegates where Romney took second place to McCain in 2008.
Arizona was McCain’s home state and McCain has since lent his support to Romney. In spite of a collective disappointment of McCain among Republicans since 2008, McCain was able to win a 2010 re-election in Arizona by a 56 to 32 percent margin. So, McCain’s support of Romney in Arizona will go a long way.
Gingrich and Congressman Ron Paul have signaled that they are in this nomination battle for the long haul, if not taking it all the way to the convention. But should Romney have wins in 78% of the states going into Arizona, then Arizona might just be his opponent’s last stand.
Newt thinks he has a chance in Arizona because he believes that he is the “true conservative” (in spite of his many left wing stances I noted in my “Anyone But Newt” article last week) and that Tea Partiers will coalesce around him. That’s exactly what J.D. Hayworth thought when he took on McCain in 2010.
But the truth about Tea Partiers, and I consider myself one, is that the overwhelming issues that concern us are economic issues. Is our country in debt? Are my taxes getting higher? Is the government being efficient? Is the government squandering tax dollars? And so on. Tea Partiers are less concerned with social issues and that is why they have a wide range of supporters from “Conservatives” to Constitutionalists to Libertarians to Republicans to Independents to even a few Blue Dog Democrats.
So Newt’s last stand is that he is going to waltz into Arizona looking for a showdown and hoping that by labeling himself the “most conservative” candidate, that he will be able to form a posse of Tea Party supporters, and will be able to win a shootout against Romney at the OK Corral. The fact is that many Tea Party supporters like Romney because of his experience in free-enterprise. That is why he has the support of many in the Tea Part movement such as Governor Nikki Haley, Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell, Tea Party Caucus members Rep. Howard Coble, Rep. Ander Crenshaw, Rep. Lamar Smith, Rep. Rob Bishop, Rep. Michael Grimm, Rep. Wally Herger, Rep. Cynthia Lummis, Rep. Rodney Alexander and even the endorsement of the Independence Hall Tea Party.
The fact that, as Governor, Romney balanced Massachusetts’ state budget every year, turning a $3 billion deficit to a $2 billion rainy day fund, without raising taxes is music to a Tea Partier’s ears. When the showdown in Arizona happens, the Tea Party posse will be standing behind Romney.
Presuming Romney wins Arizona, he will have won 8 of 10 states… 7 in a row. The momentum will be too strong, the number of delegates to overcome will be too high, and Newt won’t have a chance going into March starts off with the state of Washington, where Romney has out-polled Gingrich in the past. As it begins to pile up against Newt, he’s going to get, as George Will put it, more “horrid” over time. And that’s just not going to help Republicans beat Obama in 2012.
Provided Romney wins the delegates from Florida and all the states in February, in addition to all pledged and unpledged RNC delegates, the lead and momentum will be with Romney. If Newt is a class act and doesn’t want to see another four years of Barack Obama, he won’t take it all the way to the convention. Hopefully, the primaries will be wrapped up by March. It is important, because we need to start focusing on the one issue that will reunite all Tea Partiers, “Conservatives,” Constitutionalists, Republicans, Libertarians, Independents and even some Blue Dog Democrats… beating Barack Obama in 2012.
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I don’t doubt he’ll get the nomination due to his being the slightly lesser of four clowns. But this is still funny:
http://bobcesca.com/blog-archives/2012/01/mitt-romney-reaches-new-low-in-electability.html
Romney Revolution!!
When all elected government officials are sworn in, taking an oath to uphold and defend the U. S. Constitution, that oath has a meaningful purpose; it is not simply a formality the official is permitted to ignore in pursuit of a contrary agenda upon taking that office. Just imagine the surprise of the American people if that agenda should subsequently reveal the intentional circumvention of constitutional principles, our rule of law and unprecedented breaches of the balance of powers among the three branches of government. Just imagine the underpinnings of this agenda proved to be either quite Marxist or Fascist in nature, more radical than ever before witnessed in America, wherein (upon alleged information and belief) the American people are contemptuously perceived as ignorant “simpletons” in need of governance by self-defined, far-superior intellectual elitists who esteem, among others, Chairman Mao or Woodrow Wilson (the masterful propagandist) and who also allegedly justify “any means to an end” to include psychological maniputations of the peoples’ collective psyche and emotions with very concise, yet deceptive words and phrases, labels and descriptions, solely intended to disguise the radical actions, ideas and goals of such an imaginary agenda in order to accomplish a remaking of America (or even the world) simply according to how they imagine and would like it to be, no doubt having taken for granted and forgotten that our democratic-styled Republic, its constitution and rule of law created the very system of government which made possible their ascension to higher and higher levels of achievement and recognition. If ever this happened and the American people, after also having apathetically taken it for granted, now wished to reexperience a free and just society where everyone has an equal chance to succeed, and if a candidate for office were believed to be capable of doing just that, what would be the imaginable consequences?…because elections do have consequences, at least in America they still do and Americans just may take a chance and elect that candidate.
But what do I know…I am just a Southern “hick from the sticks” who never got a fair shot to get rich quick and I don’t have enough stuff and other people do and it’s just not fair.