Are they only for the Rich?
On the surface, most 2011 polls seem to suggest good news for the Republicans in 2012. Approval of President Obama’s “handling of the economy” has been mired in the 35-40 percent range; his overall approval rating is equally anemic, having only just recently edged up slightly to a 46%; and history suggests that an incumbent President coming into an election with these poll numbers, high unemployment, and a stagnant economy is in deep trouble and unlikely to be re-elected. According to the most recent CBS/New York Times poll, 86 percent of Americans believe the economy is in bad shape — and no incumbent has ever been re-elected when the country is in that kind of funk over the economy.
That’s good news for Republican candidates, right? Well, it certainly can’t be construed as bad news for Republicans. But, if I were a Republican strategist right about now, I would be more than a little worried that in spite of all of the foregoing, Republican face a tough challenge in 2012–and I would be worried that the candidates are in the process of miss-playing the presumably winning hand they’ve been dealt.
Let’s start with the obvious good news for Republicans: In the CBS/New York Times poll, 39 percent approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, and fewer still — 35% — approve of his handling of job creation. Additionally, 74% say the country is on the wrong track — and the right track/wrong track polling question is traditionally laid at the doorstep of the President. No President has won re-election with those kind of numbers.
So why should Republicans be worried?
First of all, the overall negatives on Obama are nothing compared to the negatives on Congress — 84 percent disapprove of Congress and while the astronomically high number reflex a good bit of “a pox on both your houses” — shouldn’t Republicans be worried that Congress in 2011 is basically code for “Republican Congress”? That’s what it is, after all. But let’s say I’m a Republican strategist and I just don’t buy that — I’m convinced the 84 percent disapproval will hurt the Dems as much as it hurts us — what about:
- 60% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of Iraq — this after his announcement on Friday that he was bringing troops home by Christmas, an announcement which was attacked by all the major Republicans as a failure due to the way the end game came about (a dispute over troop immunity).
- 70 percent believe Congressional Republicans favor the rich.
- 2/3 oppose tax cuts for corporations
- 2/3 favor increasing taxes on millionaires
- Disapproval of Congress has risen 22% since January when Republicans took over the House.
- 71 percent of the public has a negative view of Republican leadership and believes the party does not have a clear plan for creating jobs. There is substantially less support for several Republican jobs proposals — noticeably lower than the (also low) support number for Obama’s proposals.
- In February 27 percent of the public felt the Tea Party reflected the “sentiment of most Americans”; now, 46 percent say the same of Occupy Wall Street.
Occupy Wall Street
Republican Speaker of the House
Cain still leads, but for how long?
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